国投证券： 地缘冲突重塑化工品格局 重点关注硫磺、原油、碳酸锶、甲醇

Group 1: Sulfur - Sulfur is identified as a long-term bullish commodity due to geopolitical conflicts affecting supply, particularly with a projected impact of 1 million tons of sulfur supply from Russia in Q4 2023, and recovery expected to be difficult until mid-2026 [1] - Demand for sulfur is anticipated to increase significantly, with China's lithium iron phosphate production expected to exceed 3.6 million tons in 2025, leading to an additional demand of 1.06 million tons of sulfur [1] - The supply-demand gap for sulfur is projected to reach -3 million tons in 2025, -5.13 million tons in 2026, and -4.05 million tons in 2027, indicating potential price increases towards historical highs [1] Group 2: Crude Oil - The global oil market may experience a supply surplus through 2026, primarily due to production increases from non-OPEC+ countries and weak global demand growth [2] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and U.S. interventions in Venezuela, are expected to create risk premiums that could lead to significant short-term price volatility [2] - The supply side will be influenced by OPEC+ production commitments and U.S. shale oil output, while demand will be closely monitored in relation to China's inventory replenishment [2] Group 3: Strontium Carbonate - Strontium carbonate supply is highly dependent on Iran, with 70% of China's strontium ore imports coming from there, leading to increased supply uncertainty due to geopolitical risks [3] - The demand structure for strontium carbonate includes applications in strontium ferrite (66%), metallurgy (6.9%), electronic components (3.3%), and other strontium salts (21.7%) [3] - The material's properties, such as good conductivity and stability, position it well for high-quality optical glass manufacturing, suggesting a potential increase in demand as trends toward smart and high-end applications emerge [3] Group 4: Methanol - China has a high dependency on Iranian methanol imports, with 81,470 tons imported from Iran in the first 11 months of 2025, accounting for 6.4% of total methanol imports [4] - Historical data indicates that instability in Iran significantly affects domestic methanol prices, with a notable price increase of 300 yuan/ton observed during a previous conflict in June 2025 [4] - The current geopolitical situation in Iran is expected to maintain a relatively strong pricing trend for methanol in China [4]