Quan Jing Wang·2026-01-26 04:18Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector is positioned as a core asset with strategic value and investment potential, expected to perform steadily through market fluctuations from 2021 to 2025, serving as a "safe haven" for investors due to its high dividends and stable growth [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Oil and gas remain essential as a primary energy source, accounting for over 60% of global consumption, with domestic production expected to grow under energy independence strategies [2]. - China's oil import dependency is projected to reach 71.9% by 2024, highlighting significant supply pressure [2]. - The top three constituents of the National Oil and Gas Index—China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, and CNOOC—collectively account for over 90% of domestic production, reinforcing their role as key supply providers [2]. Group 2: Natural Gas Demand - Natural gas is increasingly recognized as a transitional energy source amid global energy transformation, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.35% in China's natural gas consumption from 2015 to 2024 [5]. - The peak consumption of natural gas is expected around 2040, reaching approximately 6000-7000 billion cubic meters [6]. Group 3: Policy and Market Environment - The implementation of the Energy Law and other reforms is expected to enhance industry efficiency and reduce extreme volatility risks, while state-owned enterprises are anticipated to increase dividend payouts [8]. - The National Oil and Gas Index has shown a consistent positive return over five years, with annual returns of 33.93%, 0.05%, 7.01%, 10.90%, and 10.13% from 2021 to 2025 [9][10]. Group 4: Index Characteristics - The National Oil and Gas Index is heavily weighted towards the "Big Three" oil companies, which together account for over 40% of the index, ensuring significant exposure to leading firms [12]. - The index includes a balanced distribution across the oil and gas sectors, with 61.5% in oil and petrochemicals and 15.8% in utilities, providing stable cash flow through gas companies [14]. - The index's current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 13.42, indicating reasonable valuation, with a dividend yield of 3.92%, making it attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [16]. Group 5: Current Investment Timing - International oil prices are stabilizing, with a price range of $50-60 per barrel, which is close to the main extraction cost line, limiting downside potential and supporting profit improvement [18]. - The index's return on equity (ROE) reached 9.8% in Q3 2025, significantly exceeding the overall A-share market average of 7.9%, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the sector [22].