周末消息面再生扰动 短期内沪镍期货或宽幅震荡

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are experiencing significant fluctuations, with the main contract reaching 149,540.00 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 3.12% [1] - As of January 23, the nickel futures warehouse receipts totaled 42,067 tons, reflecting an increase of 483 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The Indonesian government is expected to reduce its nickel ore production quota for 2026 to between 250 million tons and 260 million tons, a significant decline from the 2025 quota [2] Group 2 - According to Guangzhou Futures, the approval process for Indonesia's nickel ore quota is ongoing, and the expectation of reduced quotas is countered by high inventory levels, suggesting that nickel prices may experience wide fluctuations in the short term, with a reference range of 140,000 to 150,000 yuan [3] - Jinrui Futures notes that disturbances in Indonesian supply continue to support nickel prices, with recent news indicating that the Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources hopes to maintain high nickel prices. Additionally, a sunken vessel carrying approximately 50,000 tons of nickel ore from the Philippines to Guangdong is expected to have a minimal impact on domestic nickel iron production [3] - The outlook for the non-ferrous metals market remains positive, with expectations for nickel prices to potentially rise further, projecting a short-term core range for Shanghai nickel futures between 130,000 and 170,000 yuan/ton [3]