入境消费火爆、消费品以旧换新显效 税收数据呈现消费亮点

Core Insights - The consumption market in China is expected to show new highlights in 2025, driven by the revival of inbound tourism spending and the implementation of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones [1][4] Group 1: Inbound Consumption - The number of outbound tourists benefiting from tax refunds is projected to increase by 305% year-on-year in 2025, with sales of tax-refunded goods rising by 95.9% and the total tax refund amount increasing by 95.8% [1] - Inbound consumption is a key indicator of a country's openness and market attractiveness, contributing significantly to the optimization of international balance of payments and the upgrading of the service industry [1] - The number of tax refund stores has reached 12,930 across seven newly implemented regions, with over 7,000 stores offering "buy and refund" services [1] Group 2: Domestic Consumption Trends - The "old-for-new" consumption policy is showing positive effects, with retail sales of home appliances such as refrigerators, gas stoves, and mobile phones increasing by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% respectively in 2025 [2] - The sales volume and revenue of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to grow by 24.3% and 21.1% year-on-year in 2025 [2] - The "old-for-new" policy is projected to drive sales in related categories to 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [2] Group 3: Policy Support and Market Development - The 2026 "old-for-new" policy will expand its scope to include various consumer goods, with an initial allocation of 625 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support this initiative [3] - The sports and health industries are experiencing growth, with revenues from sports exhibition services and consulting services increasing by 12.2% and 27.8% respectively in 2025 [3] - The aging population is driving demand for elder care services, with spending on elder care, social assistance, and nursing home services increasing by 24.9%, 23.1%, and 15.4% respectively [3]