智通财经网·2026-01-26 06:27Core Viewpoint - Haitong International maintains a "Outperform" rating for Tencent Holdings (00700) with a target price of HKD 700, expecting steady performance in Q4 2025 and high-quality growth to continue into FY 2026 [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance Forecast - Tencent's total revenue for Q4 2025 is projected to reach RMB 195 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 13% [1] - Non-IFRS operating profit is expected to be RMB 68 billion in Q4 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - For FY 2025 and FY 2026, the forecasted total revenues are RMB 2.41 trillion and RMB 2.64 trillion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22% and 10% [1] Group 2: Gaming and Advertising Business - The gaming product line is expected to remain robust, with key overseas titles like "Honor of Kings World" and "Valorant," alongside several mid-sized games [1] - Advertising revenue is anticipated to grow significantly, with Q4 2025 expected to reach RMB 42 billion, and full-year revenues for 2025 and 2026 projected at RMB 145 billion and RMB 172 billion, respectively [1] - The growth engines for advertising include video accounts, search, and mini-programs, with AI technology continuing to enhance these areas [1] Group 3: Profitability Outlook - Despite potential pressure on profit margins from increased capital expenditures in 2026, a slight profit margin expansion is still expected due to high-margin new business lines [2] - Adjusted operating profit forecasts for Q4 2025, FY 2025, and FY 2026 are RMB 68 billion, RMB 280 billion, and RMB 312 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 18%, and 12% [2]