创金合信基金黄超：关注底部资源品的投资机会

Core Viewpoint - The current non-ferrous metal sector is in the mid-stage of an upward cycle, with gold and silver prices expected to continue rising due to tight supply and demand conditions, while industrial metals, particularly minor metals like tungsten and tin, may experience significant price elasticity but are subject to supply-demand disruptions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The non-ferrous metal index saw a total increase of 94.73% in 2025, with an 18.59% rise year-to-date as of January 23, 2026 [1][7]. - The global macro environment, characterized by significant fiscal deficits, increasing national debt, and currency overproduction, is likely to drive up prices in the non-ferrous metal sector [2][8]. Group 2: Metal Performance Outlook - The performance outlook for metals such as copper and aluminum is heavily influenced by supply-demand dynamics, with tighter supply conditions potentially leading to larger price increases, especially for smaller industrial metals [3][9]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are primarily driven by financial attributes, with their prices expected to rise in a loose monetary environment and amid increasing geopolitical tensions [3][9]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - The investment strategy should focus on selecting resource sectors with high price increase certainty and identifying companies with strong investment value, despite the potential for increased geopolitical risks due to de-globalization and supply chain restructuring [4][11]. - The concept of balancing cyclical and growth opportunities in resource investments is not a new logic for 2026; rather, it remains a critical perspective in identifying investment opportunities within the sector [4][10]. Group 4: Risks and Adjustments - The primary risk facing the resource sector is the declining risk-reward ratio due to significant price increases in certain sub-sectors and individual stocks over the past year [5][6][11]. - Companies should consider switching investments based on risk-reward ratios to mitigate potential volatility in the resource sector [6][11].