长江有色：26日铝价下跌 贸易商压价按需买入

Group 1: Market Overview - LME three-month aluminum price reported at $3175/ton, up $1.5/ton, a 0.05% increase from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic futures market saw Shanghai aluminum main contract 2603 open at 24460 CNY/ton, with a high of 24570 CNY/ton and a low of 24095 CNY/ton, closing at 24215 CNY/ton, up 80 CNY, a 0.33% increase [1] - Longjiang spot market prices ranged from 24010 to 24050 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY, with a discount of 180 to 140 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro Factors - Geopolitical risks continue to disturb the market, with tensions between the US and NATO over Greenland, leading to a significant sell-off of the dollar [2] - The US has announced new sanctions against Iranian entities and increased military presence in the Gulf, causing oil prices to rebound [2] - The Federal Reserve indicated that the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged this week, with expectations for further rate cuts diminishing [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply side remains stable with domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity unchanged, but social inventory continues to rise, putting pressure on aluminum prices [3] - As of January 23, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated for six consecutive weeks, reaching a nine-month high, indicating weak actual consumption [3] - Despite seasonal demand weakness, there is some resilience in aluminum demand due to pre-holiday stockpiling and export boosts from the photovoltaic sector [3]