债市日报：1月26日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation, with government bond futures mostly declining and interbank bond yields fluctuating within a narrow range. The recent increase in MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) has boosted trading sentiment but has diminished expectations for short-term rate cuts, leading to insufficient momentum for a significant rally in the bond market [1]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed mostly lower, with the 30-year main contract up 0.20% at 112.51, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts all fell by 0.02% [2]. - The interbank yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 0.3 basis points to 2.243%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.2 basis points to 1.943% [2]. - The China Convertible Bond Index fell by 1.19% to 528.14, with a total transaction amount of 927.91 billion [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board, with the 2-year yield down 0.13 basis points to 3.594% and the 10-year yield down 1.57 basis points to 4.225% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also declined, with the 10-year yield down 2.1 basis points to 2.237% [3]. - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield fell by 2.2 basis points to 3.492%, while the German bond yield rose by 1.9 basis points to 2.904% [3]. Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's three issues of financial bonds had bidding yields below the China Bond valuation, with yields of 1.4638%, 1.6140%, and 1.9556% for 1.0356-year, 3-year, and 10-year bonds, respectively [4]. - Chongqing's 10-year bonds had a bidding rate of 1.95%, with a high bid-to-cover ratio of 23.59 [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1505 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 78 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Shibor rates for short-term products mostly increased, with the overnight rate rising by 2.4 basis points to 1.42% [5]. Institutional Views - Huatai Fixed Income noted that recent improvements in bond market sentiment were driven by reduced concerns over supply-demand imbalances and increased uncertainty in the stock market [6]. - China International Capital Corporation highlighted that the nominal fixed income fund scale reached a historical high of 2.735 trillion yuan, benefiting from secondary bond fund subscriptions [7]. - CITIC Securities pointed out that global bond markets faced a sell-off due to geopolitical risks but noted a decrease in global panic, reducing the likelihood of a liquidity crisis [7].