美联储汇率核查难掩日美联合干预日元的重重障碍

Core Viewpoint - The recent currency check operation by the New York Federal Reserve has temporarily boosted the weak yen, signaling a rare collaboration between Japan and the U.S. to curb yen depreciation, although the likelihood of joint intervention remains low [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Check Operation - The currency check operation is a result of Japan's five-year lobbying efforts, culminating in a bilateral agreement last year allowing both countries to intervene in the currency market to address excessive volatility [6][7]. - Japan's Finance Minister has warned against speculative actions against the yen and stated that all options, including joint intervention, remain on the table [7]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the intervention expectations, the yen rose to a two-month high against the dollar, reaching 153.89 yen per dollar, significantly above the intervention alert line of 160 yen [8]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds fell by 1 basis point to 2.225%, indicating a positive market response to the intervention signals [8]. Group 3: Challenges to Joint Intervention - Analysts express skepticism about the U.S. willingness to engage in joint intervention, as the U.S. may not want to buy a currency that has depreciated for five consecutive years [9]. - Actual intervention would incur costs, as Japan would need to sell some of its U.S. Treasury holdings, potentially raising U.S. bond yields, which Washington is keen to avoid [9]. Group 4: Broader Economic Context - The U.S. is concerned about the global trend of de-dollarization, making direct intervention to sell dollars unlikely [4][9]. - Japan's central bank faces a dilemma: it must curb the yen's rapid depreciation while avoiding strong policy signals that could lead to a significant rise in bond yields [10][11].