智通财经网·2026-01-26 09:29Core Viewpoint - Mastercard (MA.US) and Visa (V.US) are expected to report their Q4 earnings soon, with Morgan Stanley maintaining an "overweight" rating for both companies, citing stable fundamentals despite some adverse factors [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Mastercard's Q4 revenue and earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be about 1% lower than market expectations, influenced by currency fluctuations and a slight slowdown in U.S. transaction volume growth [3]. - Visa's Q1 revenue and EPS expectations align closely with Wall Street, but projections for FY2026 are about 1 percentage point higher, benefiting from currency fluctuations [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Legislative Concerns - Recent news has heightened market pessimism regarding the credit card network industry, particularly concerning the Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA), which is seen as unlikely to gain support due to its lack of clear benefits for consumers and merchants [2]. - Morgan Stanley believes that even if the CCCA is implemented, both Visa and Mastercard can manage the impact, expecting only mild economic effects over the coming years [2]. Group 3: Transaction Volume Data - Major U.S. banks, which account for nearly half of the domestic Visa/Mastercard transaction volume, reported a 6.2% year-over-year growth in credit card transaction volume for Q4, a slowdown from 6.7% in Q3 [4]. - Transaction volume growth for January has accelerated, with a 130 basis point increase compared to Q4 and a 220 basis point increase compared to December of the previous year [4]. Group 4: Updated Projections - Given positive transaction data, Morgan Stanley has slightly raised its U.S. transaction volume expectations and adjusted revenue/EPS forecasts for both payment companies, although Mastercard's Q4 revenue is still expected to decline slightly due to currency effects [4].