1月26日金市晚评：全球秩序重构不确定性助黄金 机构看高7150美元

Core Viewpoint - The gold price has surged past the $5000 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand from central banks and retail investors [1][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - As of January 26, 2026, the spot gold price is trading at $5083.29 per ounce, with a daily increase of 2.02%, peaking at $5110.25 and dipping to $5003.26 [1][2]. - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) annual survey indicates analysts' price expectations have soared to $7150 per ounce, with Goldman Sachs raising its December target to $5400 from $4900 [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Iran confrontations, are significantly impacting market confidence and driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4]. - The U.S. military presence in the Persian Gulf and rising tensions with Iran have escalated the demand for gold, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Activity - In 2025, global central bank gold purchases reached 1087 tons, the highest since the Bretton Woods system's collapse in 1971, with expectations for continued strategic accumulation in 2026 [3][4]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly diversifying away from the U.S. dollar, with Poland planning to increase its gold reserves from 550 tons to 700 tons [3]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Predictions - Analysts predict that gold prices may experience fluctuations but are expected to maintain a strong upward trend, with a potential target of around $5150 per ounce by the end of Q1 2026 [6][7]. - The current upward momentum in gold prices is supported by strong buying interest below $4900, limiting the potential for significant declines [6].