张尧浠:金价如期突破5000美元 年内目标进一步上移

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market experienced a strong rally, with prices increasing nearly $400, approaching the target of $5000 set in October of the previous year, indicating robust bullish momentum and suggesting that prices could reach $6000 within the year [1][11]. Price Movement - Gold opened the week at $4615.41 per ounce, recorded a low of $4615.08, and then rebounded strongly, breaking through key resistance on Tuesday. By Friday, it reached a historical high of $4989.34, closing at $4982.08, marking a weekly increase of $388.01 or 8.45% from the previous week's close of $4594.07 [1][11]. Influencing Factors - Initial demand for gold was driven by geopolitical tensions following U.S. President Trump's warnings of tariffs against several European countries, which heightened market uncertainty and boosted gold prices. Although there were temporary price declines due to Trump's softened stance on threats, renewed warnings about potential retaliation against European asset sales revived safe-haven demand [3][14]. - The expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later in the year also contributed to gold's appeal, as lower interest rates diminish the attractiveness of low-risk assets [3][17]. Market Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of continued upward movement. The market is anticipated to test the $5500-$6000 range or higher due to ongoing geopolitical risks, currency depreciation expectations, and central bank purchases [7][18][20]. - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through key resistance levels, suggesting the start of a new bull market. If the price maintains its momentum without forming a significant downward pattern, it could see gains exceeding 30% within the year [12][20]. Central Bank Activity - Central banks globally have increased their gold reserves significantly, with China's central bank adding 280 tons in 2025, marking the 18th consecutive month of increases. This trend reflects a shift in reserve allocation strategies and signals strong demand for gold [7][18].