CF40宏观政策季报：以货币政策激发扩大内需的内生动力

Core Viewpoint - The CF40 macro policy quarterly report indicates that China's macro economy shows early signs of recovery in 2025, with monetary policy being crucial for stimulating endogenous growth in 2026 [1][2]. Economic Indicators - In 2025, key financial indicators such as the stock market, RMB exchange rate, social financing growth, and corporate deposits have shown significant improvement [1]. - Corporate profits have halted a multi-year decline, and overall consumption and labor market conditions remain stable [1]. Recovery Support - The recovery is primarily supported by fiscal policy, external demand, and prior price adjustments, but investment and the real estate market still face considerable pressure [1]. - The endogenous growth momentum remains weak, and the sustainability of the recovery needs to be strengthened [1]. Policy Recommendations for 2026 - The report emphasizes the need for increased counter-cyclical policy efforts, particularly through active fiscal measures and a focus on monetary policy [1][2]. - It is suggested that broad fiscal spending should be around 41 trillion yuan, with a public budget deficit aligned with 4% of GDP [2]. Monetary Policy Focus - The importance of monetary policy in expanding domestic demand is highlighted, with recommendations to lower the 7-day reverse repo rate, deposit rates, and LPR rates [2]. - A commitment to inflation targets and significant reductions in policy rates are seen as key actions to shift expectations for businesses and households [2][3]. Structural Issues and Market Dynamics - The long-standing "strong supply, weak demand" contradiction is noted as a source of instability in economic growth, with low consumption as a direct manifestation [3]. - To address this, it is proposed that the market should play a decisive role in resource allocation, alongside improving residents' income and social security [3].