关税裁决与美联储“易主”：“双线博弈”如何动摇美元基石

Group 1: Tariff Uncertainty - The U.S. Supreme Court's decision on the president's tariff authority remains pending, with a 70% probability that tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could be overturned by the end of 2025 [3] - Current tariffs are causing U.S. importers to incur losses exceeding $16 billion monthly, and if ruled against, the U.S. Treasury may need to refund tariff revenues [3][4] - Analysts suggest that even if tariffs are deemed illegal, the U.S. government is likely to implement new tariffs through alternative legal means, maintaining a high level of uncertainty in the market [5] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - The current macroeconomic environment is characterized by a bearish outlook on the U.S. dollar and a cautious stance on U.S. equities, with expectations of reduced capital inflows into the stock market [4][5] - The anticipated appointment of a new Federal Reserve chairperson sensitive to Trump's monetary policy views could further weaken the dollar and support gold prices [6][7] - The market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain its current monetary policy, with potential for two rate cuts this year, driven by economic indicators suggesting a need for a gradual adjustment to neutral policy [7][8]