票据利率显著下行，跌破1.10%

Core Viewpoint - In January 2026, the bill interest rates initially rose to 1.28% before entering a downward trend, with significant fluctuations observed in the last week of January, culminating in a drop to 1.08% on January 26, marking the first time it fell below 1.10% during the month [1][3][13]. Historical Market Trends - The overall trend of bill interest rates in January 2026 was a volatile downward movement, starting with a high opening. On the first working day, the interest rate for the June maturity national bank bills opened significantly higher at 1.24%, while the July maturity bills opened around 1.20%. Subsequently, the July maturity bills peaked at 1.28% before entering a downward channel, eventually stabilizing around 1.14% [3][12]. - In the last week of January, increased market uncertainties led to greater fluctuations in bill interest rates, with a notable drop on January 26, where the July maturity national bank bill interest rate decreased by 5 basis points (BP) to 1.08% [1][13]. Daily Market Activity (January 26) - On January 26, the primary market for bills experienced low supply and fewer selling orders. Major state-owned banks were buying bills close to market prices, leading to a situation where buying pressure significantly outweighed selling pressure, resulting in a rapid decline in bill interest rates. By midday, the interest rates for various maturities had decreased, with the July maturity bills falling to 1.07% [4][10]. - In the afternoon, increased selling pressure for the July maturity bills caused a slight rebound in interest rates to 1.09%, but it ultimately closed lower at 1.08%. The other maturities maintained a balanced supply and demand, resulting in stable interest rates [10][12]. Interest Rate Spreads - As of January 26, the spread between bill rates and government bond rates was -22 BP, while the spread with interbank certificates of deposit was -51 BP. The bill rates failed to break above government bond rates at the beginning of the month, leading to an expanding spread [5][15]. Market Outlook - In the last week of January, the supply of bills is expected to be moderate, while uncertainties in bank demand will influence the direction of bill interest rates. Market expectations suggest a significant downward opening for bill rates in early February, leading to strong buying enthusiasm and creating resistance against upward movements in bill rates, indicating a state of "easy down, hard up" [7][17].