USD/JPY: Sentiment Shifts As Intervention Talk Picks Up

Market Overview - U.S. equity index futures are retreating as investors prepare for a significant week with the anticipated FOMC hold and a busy corporate earnings schedule; the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow 30, and Russell 2000 all posted modest weekly declines [1] - Treasury yields are edging lower, with market pricing indicating a near certainty of a hold in the upcoming FOMC meeting and potential rate cuts starting in July [1] Company Performance - Nvidia shares rose by 1.6% following news of CEO Jensen Huang's planned visit to China and reports that Chinese tech firms can prepare orders for H200 chips [2] - Intel shares plummeted by 17%, marking its worst day since 2024 due to weak earnings guidance [2] - Capital One shares fell by 7.6% after a $5.15 billion acquisition of Brex and a fourth-quarter earnings miss [2] - Clorox shares increased by 1.1% after agreeing to acquire Gojo Industries for $2.25 billion and reaffirming its 2026 outlook [2] - Booz Allen Hamilton shares jumped by 6.8% after raising its first-quarter earnings forecast [2] - Fortinet shares rose by 5.2% following an upgrade to buy by TD Cowen [2] - Ericsson shares surged by 8.9% after beating profit expectations and announcing a 15 billion krona share buyback program [2] Commodity Insights - Gold prices surpassed $5,000 for the first time as investors sought safety, with silver also rallying and briefly breaching $109 [3] - Oil prices (WTI) rose to $61 amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and a slight increase in the U.S. oil rig count [3] Currency and Central Bank Updates - The U.S. Dollar Index fell into the 96s, reaching lows not seen since September, with significant losses against the Japanese yen due to intervention risks [4] - The European Central Bank's Kocher noted that trade threats raise economic risks but cautioned against pre-emptively adjusting policy [5] - Bank of England's Greene indicated that the decline in wage growth has likely run its course, with forward indicators raising concerns [5] - Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda held rates steady but suggested a potential rate hike could occur in three months [5] Client Sentiment and Market Trends - Client sentiment in the S&P has shifted to extreme long at 78%, with notable increases in long sentiment for the Dow and Russell [6] - Commodities saw heavy buying in gold and silver, with gold sentiment climbing to 77% after breaching $5,000 [6] - Shifts in FX sentiment included a move from majority long to majority short in EUR/USD and a shift to majority buy in USD/JPY [6] Economic Data and Upcoming Events - U.S. preliminary manufacturing PMI improved to 51.9, while services held at 52.5, missing forecasts; consumer sentiment improved to 56.4 [8] - Upcoming economic data includes U.S. housing price data, FOMC policy announcement, and earnings from major companies like UnitedHealth, Microsoft, and Apple [9]