【宏观与债市周报】中央财政为股权投资机构发债提供增信支持，国债收益率下行

Macroeconomic Overview - In mid-January 2026, prices of 29 out of 50 monitored production materials increased, while 13 decreased and 8 remained stable [1][4] - As of January 23, 2026, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 6 basis points to 4.24%, with the effective federal funds rate remaining stable at 3.64% [1][4] - In December 2025, the seasonally adjusted non-farm employment in the U.S. increased by 50,000, with previous months' figures revised downwards, totaling a downward revision of 76,000 jobs [1][4] - The unemployment rate in December fell to 4.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from November [1][4] - The Eurozone benchmark interest rate remains at 2.15%, while Japan's benchmark rate is at 0.75% [1][4] Bond Market Insights - The yields on both 10-year and 2-year government bonds declined last week, with the 10-year yield down by 0.95 basis points to 1.8298% and the 2-year yield down by 1.13 basis points to 1.3959% as of January 23 [2][5] - As of the end of December, the M2 money supply was 340.29 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [2][5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 125 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on January 23, with a net liquidity injection of 38.3 billion yuan for the day [2][5] - The total social financing stock was 442.12 trillion yuan in December 2025, with a financing growth rate of 8.3%, narrowing the gap with M2 growth by 0.7 percentage points from November [2][5] - Last week, 308 credit bonds were successfully issued, with 135 classified as local government financing bonds, accounting for 43.8% of the total [2][5] Policy and Market Developments - The People's Bank of China aims to accelerate the construction of a cross-border payment system for the yuan and implement strict regulatory measures for payment institutions [3][6] - The central government has allocated risk-sharing funds to support bond issuance for private enterprises and private equity investment institutions [3][6] - The Governor of the People's Bank of China announced plans to establish a risk-sharing tool for technology innovation and private enterprise bonds, along with providing re-lending support [3][6] - The Ministry of Finance will conduct market support operations for government bonds with maturities of 3 and 5 years starting January 20 [3][6] - Recent announcements from local government financing entities involve equity transfers, asset disposals, and changes in control [3][6] Information from Far East Credit - Far East Credit published a guide on the application of large language models in corporate credit evaluation [3][6] - Far East Credit's rating facilitated the successful issuance of the first medium-term note for Zhejiang Jiaxing Lake District Science and Technology Control Group in 2026 [3][6]