因内存价格飙升，智能手机OLED屏幕出货量暴跌

Core Insights - Global smartphone OLED shipments are expected to decline this year, marking the first drop after three consecutive years of growth, primarily due to memory shortages and rising prices [3][6] - Omdia forecasts that OLED screen shipments will reach 810 million units in 2023, a decrease of 7 million units from 817 million units in 2022 [3][6] - Smartphone manufacturers are reducing their output plans and component procurement due to the unwillingness to pass on increased memory costs to consumers, which could lead to decreased demand and extended replacement cycles [3][6] Industry Analysis - The current memory shortage and price increases are attributed to the surge in demand for AI server memory, tightening the component supply-demand relationship across the consumer electronics ecosystem [3][6] - Omdia indicates that OLED has been identified as a key target for reducing manufacturing costs, but further price reductions for OLED are expected to be limited due to rising storage media costs, which in some configurations exceed display costs [3][6] - Geopolitical tensions, U.S. interest rate cuts, and a weak dollar are driving speculative capital into dollar-denominated raw material markets, such as gold, silver, copper, and semiconductors, with the burden of electronic raw material price adjustments being passed onto manufacturers [4][7] - Many manufacturers may not yet realize the impact of raw material price adjustments on the entire electronics supply chain, leading to potential cumulative risks if downstream production and procurement plans remain unchanged while upstream cost structures have shifted [4][7]