Nvidia set to supplant Apple as TSMC's top customer, signaling chip industry's 'changing dynamic'

Core Insights - Nvidia is set to become TSMC's largest customer this year, surpassing Apple, which has been TSMC's largest customer primarily for A-series and M-series chips [2][3] - This shift signifies a fundamental change in the semiconductor industry, highlighting Nvidia's increasing significance in the AI infrastructure development [2][3] - Nvidia is projected to generate $33 billion in revenue for TSMC this year, accounting for approximately 22% of TSMC's total revenue, while Apple is expected to contribute around $27 billion, or 18% [3] TSMC's Financial Performance - TSMC reported $33.73 billion in net revenue for the December quarter, reflecting a 21% year-over-year increase, and anticipates 30% growth in sales for the current year [14] - TSMC's sales from high-performance computing (HPC), which includes Nvidia's AI chips, constituted 55% of its net revenue in the fourth quarter, up from 40% in 2022 [8] - The company expects AI chip sales to grow at a "mid-to-high-fifties" compound growth rate through 2029 [14] Market Dynamics - TSMC holds an estimated 70% of the total market for chip manufacturing revenue, reinforcing its position as the largest contract supply foundry globally [11] - The transition of TSMC's largest customer from Apple to Nvidia alters the dynamics of the semiconductor market, with Nvidia's demand for capacity significantly increasing [4][18] - TSMC plans to invest up to $56 billion in capital expenditures this year to meet the rising demand for AI chips, with investments expected to come online by 2028 [15] Customer Relationships - The relationship between TSMC and Apple has historically been strong due to the volume of iPhone chips, but the focus is now shifting towards Nvidia as a key customer [17][18] - Nvidia's AI chips are more complex and costly to produce compared to Apple's chips, indicating a shift in the type of products driving TSMC's revenue [9][18] - TSMC's CEO emphasized the importance of AI chip demand from cloud service providers, indicating a robust multi-year trend in AI [15]