Bitcoin Downside: Where Does This Fall In BTC Price End?

Market Overview - Bitcoin has declined by 25% over the past six months, currently trading below $88,000, attributed to macroeconomic uncertainties and diminishing institutional flows [2][5] - The peak price near $126,000 in late 2025 was followed by decreasing enthusiasm and leveraged trading, leading to forced liquidations [2][5] Price Projections - CryptoQuant anticipates a medium-term downside target of around $70,000, with a significant pullback potentially reaching $56,000, which is historically where bear markets have settled [5] - More severe scenarios suggest prices could drop to $25,000 or even $10,000 under catastrophic conditions [5] Institutional Behavior - U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows of $4.57 billion in November and December 2025, marking their worst two-month performance on record [9] - The trend of institutional exits is accelerating, with significant outflows indicating structural de-risking rather than temporary profit-taking [9] Technical Indicators - Bitcoin is trading below its 365-day moving average of approximately $101,000, with bearish signals emerging on the weekly chart [9] - Current price range is between $85,000 and $92,000, with selling pressure evident at each rally attempt [9] Historical Context - Historical patterns show that sharp corrections of 40-50% typically recover within 6-16 months, while deeper bear markets with 70-80% declines take 24-28 months to recover [7] - Previous significant drawdowns include a 78% drop from about $69,000 to below $16,000, which required 28 months for recovery [10] Recovery Outlook - Recovery hinges on macroeconomic catalysts, with a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve potentially stabilizing conditions by Q2-Q3 2026 [12] - Conservative estimates suggest Bitcoin could reach $120,000-$170,000 by the end of 2026 if ETF flows stabilize and macroeconomic conditions improve [15] Supply-Demand Dynamics - Long-term holders have resumed accumulation after a distribution phase, indicating a favorable supply-demand dynamic [15] - Despite market turbulence, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $20 billion in total flows during 2025, laying the groundwork for renewed accumulation [15]