Market Trends - The stock market is showing signs of cyclicality, with a shift towards more cyclical sectors and value stocks outperforming growth sectors like technology [1][2] - In January 2026, sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials have been early winners, with small-cap stocks like the Russell 2000 outperforming larger indices like the S&P 500 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy remains stable, with recent data indicating a recovering labor market and controlled inflation, contributing to a broadening stock market [7][8] - Corporate earnings quality is becoming more important to investors than the number of expected rate cuts, with the S&P 500 expected to grow earnings by 15% this year [12][13] Earnings Reports - The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks significantly contributed to earnings growth in 2024 and 2025, but analysts expect the rest of the S&P 500 to catch up in 2026 [9][11] - Key earnings reports from major tech companies are anticipated, which will be crucial for market performance [10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain current interest rates, with a 97% certainty among investors that no cuts will occur in the upcoming meeting [4] - Political pressure on the Fed, particularly from President Trump, may influence future rate decisions, with speculation about a more dovish Fed chair being appointed [17][18]
Here’s what investors want even more than a Fed interest-rate cut this week