Growth in AUM Balance Likely to Aid Ameriprise's Q4 Earnings

Core Insights - Ameriprise Financial, Inc. (AMP) is expected to report fourth-quarter and 2025 results on January 29, with anticipated year-over-year increases in revenues and earnings [1][8] Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for AMP's management and financial advice fees is $2.89 billion, reflecting a 6.6% increase from the prior-year quarter [3] - The estimate for distribution fees stands at $557 million, indicating a 3.9% year-over-year growth [3] - Other revenues are expected to reach $135 million, suggesting a 6.3% increase [3] - Net investment income is projected at $841 million, which represents a 5.7% decline year-over-year [4] - Premiums, policy, and contract charges are estimated at $412 million, indicating an 8.7% rise [4] - Total assets under management (AUM) and assets under administration (AUA) are expected to be $1.63 trillion, reflecting a 7.1% increase from the previous year [4][8] Cost Management and Earnings Outlook - While cost management initiatives have controlled general and administrative expenses, overall costs are expected to be elevated due to technology upgrades and hiring [5] - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings is $10.29 per share, indicating a 9.9% increase from the prior-year quarter [7][8] - The full-year earnings estimate is $38.72, suggesting a 12.7% rise from the previous year [7] Revenue Projections - The total quarterly sales estimate is $4.71 billion, which indicates a 5.5% year-over-year increase [9] - The sales estimate for 2025 is projected at $18.06 billion, reflecting a 5.7% increase from the previous year [9] Earnings Surprise History - Ameriprise has a strong earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with an average beat of 3.4% [2] - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.87% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a high likelihood of beating the consensus estimate this time [6]