Arthur J. Gallagher & (US:AJG) ZACKS·2026-01-26 15:25Core Insights - Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is anticipated to show improvements in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter of 2025, with revenue expected to reach $3.58 billion, reflecting a 33.6% increase year-over-year [1] - The earnings consensus estimate is $2.38 per share, indicating an 11.7% year-over-year growth, although this estimate has decreased by 2.4% in the last 30 days [2] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fees is projected at $1 billion, representing a 17.1% increase from the previous year [6] - Commissions are expected to be $2.2 billion, indicating a significant growth of 49.1% compared to the prior year [6] Segment Performance - The Risk Management segment is expected to benefit from excellent client retention, strong new business production, and increased customer activity, with an anticipated organic growth of about 7% and margins around 21% [7] - The Brokerage segment is projected to see organic growth of around 5%, driven by strong customer retention, new business generation, and higher renewal premiums [8] Factors Influencing Results - Increased commissions and fees, along with higher supplemental revenues and improved investment income, are likely to contribute positively to the top line [9] - Total expenses are expected to rise due to higher compensation, reimbursements, interest, amortization, and changes in estimated acquisition earnout payables [9] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for AJG, as the Earnings ESP stands at -1.03%, with the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.35 being lower than the consensus estimate [3][4] - AJG currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold position [4]