Will Nasdaq's Beat Streak Continue This Earnings Season?

Core Insights - Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) is anticipated to show growth in both revenue and earnings for Q4 2025, with revenue expected to reach $1.37 billion, reflecting an 11.5% increase year-over-year [1] - The earnings consensus estimate is set at 91 cents per share, indicating a 19.7% year-over-year increase, with a recent upward revision of 1.1% in the past 60 days [2] Financial Performance Expectations - The Earnings ESP for Nasdaq is currently +0.45%, suggesting a potential earnings beat, supported by a positive earnings estimate and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3][4] - Factors contributing to the expected performance include organic revenue growth, new sales, and increased revenues from Financial Crime Management Technology [5] Revenue Drivers - The Financial Crime Management Technology segment is likely to benefit from higher subscription revenues due to new sales and price increases [6] - The Capital Markets Technology business is expected to see growth from increased trade management services and new client contracts [6] - The Capital Access Platforms division is projected to gain from new listings, increased data sales, and higher average assets under management (AUM) linked to Nasdaq indices [7] Volume and Listing Growth - Nasdaq reported a significant increase in Q4 volumes, with U.S. equity options up 25.3% year-over-year to 1.1 billion contracts, and European options and futures volume up 13.3% to 16.1 million contracts [10][11] - The U.S. matched equity volume reached 171.3 billion shares, a 36.8% increase from the previous year, while total listings rose 6.7% year-over-year to 5,599 [12] Expense Considerations - Total expenses are expected to rise due to increased costs in professional services, technology infrastructure, marketing, and regulatory initiatives [8] - However, share buybacks during the quarter are anticipated to positively impact the bottom line [8]