AI spending wasn't the biggest engine of U.S. economic growth in 2025, despite popular assumptions

Core Insights - The narrative that artificial intelligence (AI) is the primary driver of the U.S. economy is considered overstated, with consumption being the most significant contributor to GDP growth [1][2] - AI-related capital expenditures were identified as the second-largest driver of GDP growth, but not the sole factor [2][3] Group 1: Economic Contributions - Consumption was the most crucial driver of U.S. GDP growth last year, which aligns with typical patterns during economic expansions [2] - AI-related components contributed approximately 90 basis points, or 0.9%, to real GDP growth on average from Q1 to Q3 of 2025, accounting for nearly 40% of average real GDP growth during that period [3] - When adjusted for imports of AI-related equipment, the net contribution of AI investments to GDP growth is reduced to between 40 to 50 basis points, or about 20-25% of real GDP growth excluding these imports [3]