Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-26 23:36Core Insights - The current lithium battery cycle is highly similar to the previous photovoltaic cycle, with three main conclusions drawn: 1) Price increases have not negatively impacted demand, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and price across the industry chain, resulting in inflation throughout the entire supply chain. 2) Prices in rigid capacity segments serve as demand indicators, with price declines resulting from capacity releases rather than demand shrinkage. 3) Stock prices may experience temporary confusion due to demand skepticism after valuation increases, but ultimately, stock prices will follow the trend of volume and price growth in the industry chain [3][4][5]. Group 1: Photovoltaic Cycle Review - The photovoltaic cycle saw significant profits concentrated in upstream segments due to excess profits from downstream power stations, with bottleneck segments like silicon materials and glass capturing most of the industry's profits [4][7]. - The price ceiling in the industry chain is difficult to predict during the bottom of the cycle, as it is influenced by the maximum price that the end demand can accept [7][25]. - The stock prices of the industry generally rose alongside silicon material prices, indicating a shared benefit from the industry's upward trend, although stock prices may peak before actual price increases due to market anticipations [31][33]. Group 2: Lithium Battery and Energy Storage Cycle - The lithium battery cycle, driven by energy storage, is expected to replicate the photovoltaic cycle, with economic factors driving demand and a significant increase in storage demand anticipated between 2026 and 2028 [5][36]. - The price of lithium carbonate is projected to stabilize between 150,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton, with demand expected to be robust despite potential price increases affecting some domestic storage demand [6][62]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to face constraints due to long expansion cycles and high capital barriers, making it a critical bottleneck in the industry chain [60][61]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for energy storage is expected to grow non-linearly as costs decline, with the current system prices at historical lows, similar to the photovoltaic cycle's price drop [39][41]. - Capital expenditure in the lithium battery and energy storage industry has reached a low point, leading to a mismatch between supply expansion and demand growth [42][44]. - The overall industry is expected to experience a gradual recovery in profits, with downstream profits flowing back to upstream manufacturing and mining sectors, particularly benefiting bottleneck segments like lithium carbonate [47][50][60]. Group 4: Price Dynamics and Market Expectations - The price of lithium carbonate is influenced by the maximum price that customers can accept, with estimates indicating that a price increase to 200,000 yuan per ton could significantly impact investment returns in various provinces [63][66]. - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is projected to be between 150,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton, depending on supply increments and demand expectations [69]. - The six-fluorophosphate lithium segment is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, with significant price elasticity, indicating a high likelihood of price increases in the coming years [70][75].