中经评论：发达经济体高债务模式难为继

Core Viewpoint - The global bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off driven by concerns over the sustainability of high debt levels in developed economies, exacerbated by U.S. tariff threats and Japan's expansionary fiscal policies [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields saw substantial increases, with the 30-year yield rising nearly 9 basis points to 4.925% and the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.286%, both marking the highest levels since September of the previous year [1] - Japan's bond market faced historic sell-offs, with the 30-year yield increasing over 30 basis points to 3.915% and the 40-year yield crossing the psychological threshold of 4% [1] - Major European economies also experienced rising long-term bond yields, indicating a synchronized reaction across global markets [1] Group 2: Debt Concerns - The total global debt is projected to reach $345.7 trillion by September 2025, which is 3.1 times the global GDP, with developed market debt hitting a record $230.6 trillion [2] - U.S. federal debt is nearing $39 trillion, with projected deficits increasing from $1.9 trillion in 2025 to $2.5 trillion by 2035, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [2] - The aging population in developed economies is driving up welfare spending, with EU social security expenditures approaching 30% of GDP, further complicating fiscal management [2] Group 3: Political and Structural Challenges - Political polarization is hindering fiscal reforms, as seen in the U.S. Congress's repeated budget impasses and Japan's commitment to suspend food consumption tax while promoting significant investments in AI and semiconductors [3] - The reliance on debt for short-term growth, rather than structural reforms, is eroding market confidence, leading to a potential collapse in investor trust [3] - The sell-off of U.S. Treasuries by foreign funds reflects a growing belief that the U.S. fiscal situation is unsustainable, undermining the dollar's status as a global asset pricing anchor [3] Group 4: Future Risks - There is increasing pressure for debt monetization, which could lead to a credit crisis for fiat currencies if central banks resort to quantitative easing in response to economic downturns [4] - A vicious cycle of fiscal tightening and social unrest may emerge, as some economies may be forced to cut welfare or raise taxes amidst significant political resistance [4] - Emerging markets with lower debt and higher growth may attract capital away from developed countries, accelerating the shift towards a multipolar global financial landscape [4]