研究称消费仍是美国经济增长最大驱动力，AI支出仅排第二

Core Insights - The narrative that artificial intelligence (AI) is the lifeblood of the U.S. economy appears to be exaggerated, as consumer spending remains the primary driver of GDP growth, with AI-related capital expenditure being the second [1][5][6]. Economic Contributions - AI-related investments contributed approximately 90 basis points (0.9%) to actual GDP growth from Q1 to Q3 of 2025, accounting for about 40% of the average actual GDP growth during that period [2][6]. - When adjusting for imports, the net average contribution of AI-related investments drops to between 40 to 50 basis points, representing 20% to 25% of actual GDP growth for the same quarters [2][6]. Sectoral Insights - Investment in software and computers is identified as the most significant contributor to GDP growth from AI, rather than the focus on data centers [2][6]. - A report from Bespoke Investment Group indicated that AI-related spending categories accounted for only 15% of quarterly GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 of 2025, with their overall contribution to GDP being less than 5% [2][6]. GDP Growth Trends - The actual GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 was significantly higher than expected at 4.3%, while Q2 also exceeded expectations at 3.3%. However, Q1 experienced a decline of 0.3%, marking the first quarterly negative growth since early 2022 [3][7].