“伽马挤压”引爆金市：突破5000美元后，交易员疯狂买入5500-6000看涨期权

Core Viewpoint - The global commodity market reached a milestone on January 26, 2026, as both spot gold and COMEX gold futures prices surpassed the psychological threshold of $5,000 per ounce, marking the highest record in financial history. This breakout has led to aggressive buying in the options market, indicating strong consensus among market players for a "bull market second half" in gold [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On the day of the price surge, gold prices increased by 2.5%, surpassing the $5,100 mark, which also boosted the entire metal sector. This rally is partly attributed to the resumption of "fiat currency devaluation trades," as investors shift from sovereign bonds and currencies to hard assets like gold and silver for safety [1]. - The breakthrough of the $5,000 level triggered a rare "gamma squeeze" effect in the options market, forcing many volatility sellers to cover their positions in both spot and futures markets, further driving up gold prices [4]. - The implied volatility of gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange has reached its highest level since the onset of the global pandemic in March 2020, with significant activity in call spreads indicating bullish sentiment among traders [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are actively buying call spreads on SPDR Gold Shares, including approximately 70,000 contracts for the September 590/595 spread and 37,000 contracts for the March 510/515 spread, indicating a low-cost strategy to position for further price increases in the coming months [5]. - According to analysts, if the ETF price rises by 10.1%, the potential return on the March position could reach 420% [5]. Group 3: Institutional Inflows - In January, the U.S. listed gold ETF sector saw a total inflow of $4.7 billion, with over half directed towards SPDR Gold Shares, reflecting strong institutional inflows and proactive long positions by market makers in anticipation of the $5,000 breakthrough [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and expectations of dollar depreciation are driving demand for gold, as institutional investors increase their allocation to gold in their asset portfolios to historical highs [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Major Wall Street banks have quickly raised their price targets for gold in 2026, with Goldman Sachs indicating that the $5,000 breakthrough signifies a "sovereign value revaluation" phase, raising its year-end target to $5,400. Bank of America is even more optimistic, predicting that gold could reach $6,000 if geopolitical tensions do not ease [9]. - Despite the bullish sentiment, analysts caution that entering the "vacuum zone" above $5,000 may lead to increased volatility, necessitating vigilance against potential high-level fluctuations driven by momentum trading [9].