光大期货0127黄金点评：地缘局势升温，金价延续强势

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices continue to rise, closing at $5004.8 per ounce with a 0.50% increase, while domestic SHFE gold prices also show a strong performance, closing at 1148.14 yuan per gram with a 1.49% increase [2][4]. Economic Data - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a 5.3% increase in durable goods orders, the largest growth in six months, following a revised decline of 2.1% in the previous month, driven by orders for commercial aircraft and other capital equipment [2][4]. Market Sentiment - Polymarket data indicates a 78% probability of a new government shutdown in the U.S. by the end of January, a significant increase from less than 10% the previous week [2][4]. Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East for several days of military exercises, raising concerns about geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran [5]. - Despite low expectations for a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in January, geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. dollar credibility are expected to support gold prices in the short term [5]. Future Outlook - The market is advised to remain bullish on gold in the short term, with attention on the upcoming decision regarding the next Federal Reserve chairperson [5].