中信建投期货:1月27日能化早报
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-27 01:22

Group 1 - Domestic natural rubber price is 15,950 CNY/ton, down 50 CNY/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,150 CNY/ton, also down 50 CNY/ton [4][31] - Thai rubber water price reported at 57.7 THB/kg, up 0.1 THB/kg from the previous day; cup rubber price remains stable at 53.0 THB/kg [5][32] - As of January 25, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber is 584,500 tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons, or 0.07% [5][32] Group 2 - The global rubber market is expected to transition from dynamic pricing based on supply-demand balance to static pricing based on inventory levels as the Northern Hemisphere enters the low production season [5][32] - Despite a projected moderate growth in global tire and rubber product demand by 2026, growth will take time and may be limited by ongoing global trade barriers [5][32] - The rebound in rubber prices is not expected to exceed the levels seen in late July 2025 before the Lunar New Year in 2026 [5][32] Group 3 - PX industry load in China decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 89.0%, while Asia's load increased by 0.4 percentage points to 81.0%, indicating a stable supply [6][33] - The PX supply-demand balance is expected to shift to a loose state in the first quarter due to numerous maintenance plans in downstream PTA facilities [6][33] - The price of PX is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 7,200-7,300 CNY [6][33] Group 4 - PTA industry load decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 76.6%, indicating a low level compared to historical data, with expected supply tightening due to maintenance plans [8][35] - The overall demand for PTA is weak, with a decline in new orders and a decrease in factory operating rates in the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region [8][35] - PTA price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 5,200-5,300 CNY [8][35] Group 5 - The EG industry load decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 73.7%, with domestic supply remaining ample despite potential import reductions from North America and the Middle East [10][37] - The price of EG is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with a support range of 3,900-3,950 CNY [10][37] Group 6 - The PR industry load decreased by 2.0 percentage points to 66.4%, with ongoing maintenance expected to support processing fees [12][42] - The demand for PR is weak due to the traditional off-season for beverage consumption, limiting production recovery [12][42] - PR price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a support range of 6,100-6,200 CNY [12][42] Group 7 - The glass industry shows weak supply and demand, with inventory increasing by 10,000 tons to 266,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [18][45] - The glass production rate remains stable, but downstream purchasing activity is generally weak [18][45] - Glass prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a reference range of 1,060-1,100 CNY [18][46]

CSC-中信建投期货:1月27日能化早报 - Reportify