不锈钢：盘面维持窄幅震荡 成本和供需博弈

Core Viewpoint - The stainless steel market is experiencing a mixed sentiment with cautious pricing strategies amid fluctuating raw material costs and demand pressures [3] Supply - In December, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.2605 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 232,600 tons (6.7%) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [2] - The production forecast for January is 3.4065 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.48% and a year-on-year increase of 19.05% [2] - The 300 series output is expected to be 1.7632 million tons in January, with a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 12.58% [2] Inventory - Social inventory continues to decrease, albeit at a slower pace compared to the previous week, with a total of 450,700 tons of 300 series stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan, a week-on-week decrease of 6,700 tons [2] - As of January 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel inventory was 38,256 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8,635 tons [2] Raw Materials - Nickel ore prices in the Philippines have been rising, with the Benguet mine's 1.25% nickel ore auction price reaching $32.5 [1] - Indonesia's HPM benchmark price for January has been raised to $29.04 per wet ton for 1.6% grade, significantly higher than the previous half-month [1] - High nickel pig iron prices are trending upwards, with market negotiation ranges moving to 1,020-1,030 yuan per nickel (tax included) [1] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is characterized by narrow fluctuations, with cautious selling sentiment among agents and limited inquiries [3] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, creating space for further interest rate cuts [3] - Despite improved profits leading to increased production plans, demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and financial pressures on downstream enterprises [3] - Overall, while raw material cost support is strengthening, the combination of ample supply and weak demand is limiting upward price movement, with short-term expectations of range-bound trading between 13,800 and 14,600 [3]