镍： 获利回吐汹涌资金高位离场 镍价急速回调

Core Viewpoint - Nickel is experiencing a significant price correction due to a combination of macroeconomic pressures, fundamental discrepancies, and capital withdrawal, leading to a rapid decline in global nickel prices [1][2]. Macroeconomic Factors - Major economies are facing weak growth prospects, which diminishes short-term demand expectations for industrial metals. Adjustments in central bank monetary policy have increased the relative attractiveness of the US dollar, putting pressure on dollar-denominated commodities [1][2]. - Geopolitical tensions have shifted risk aversion towards assets like gold, providing limited support for industrial metals [1]. Fundamental Factors - There is a "discrepancy" between expectations and reality in the nickel market. Uncertainties regarding production cuts from key supply countries have weakened the core logic that previously supported prices. High visible inventories have exacerbated perceptions of supply looseness [2]. - Demand from major downstream industries is weak, with only rigid procurement being maintained, and high prices significantly suppressing demand. Emerging sectors are not yet sufficient to offset the weakness in traditional areas [2]. Capital Behavior - After significant prior gains, the market has accumulated substantial profit-taking positions. When negative signals emerged from macro and fundamental aspects, this capital concentrated on exiting the market, triggering a rapid price correction [2]. Supply Side Dynamics - Indonesia, which dominates nearly 70% of global nickel supply, has drastically reduced its nickel ore quota for 2026 to 250-260 million tons, a drop of over 34% from the previous year, reinforcing expectations of long-term supply shortages [2]. - While domestic electrolytic nickel capacity in China is increasing, the raw material supply is constrained by Indonesian policies, limiting overall growth [2]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for nickel is currently characterized by a transitional phase, with significant slowdowns in the stainless steel sector, which heavily relies on the Chinese real estate market, now in decline [3]. - In the emerging energy sector, the demand structure is changing, with lithium iron phosphate batteries gaining market share at the expense of high-nickel materials, leading to slow order growth for high-nickel routes [3][4]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo have led to a 35% reduction in local nickel production, increasing transportation and insurance costs, which has contributed to a geopolitical premium of 3%-5% on nickel prices [4]. Industry Chain Dynamics - There is a significant profit differentiation across the industry chain, with upstream resource holders benefiting from rising prices, while midstream refining faces pressure and downstream manufacturing struggles with cost increases not being passed on to end products [5]. - The market is currently in a state of oscillation between strong expectations and weak realities, with rising inventories and seasonal demand weakness limiting price increases [5]. Short-term and Long-term Outlook - In the short term (1-3 trading days), nickel prices are expected to fluctuate between $18,600 and $19,200 per ton, with market activity likely to decrease as the Chinese New Year approaches [6]. - In the medium to long term (1-3 months), nickel prices may have upward momentum as the impacts of Indonesian policies become evident and demand is expected to recover post-spring [6].