华泰期货：金银冲高回落 美经济韧性凸显
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-27 02:22

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant volatility, with COMEX silver initially surging over 16% before retreating, while COMEX gold also saw fluctuations around the $5000 mark, indicating a turbulent trading environment influenced by geopolitical and economic factors [2][14]. Market Analysis - On January 26, 2026, COMEX silver reached a peak increase of over 16%, while spot silver rose nearly 14%, both surpassing $117 per ounce before a sharp decline, ultimately closing with a 2.5% gain [2][14]. - COMEX gold and spot gold both briefly crossed the $5000 and $5100 thresholds, respectively, but ended the day with a modest increase of 0.5%, hovering around $5000 [2][14]. - Spot palladium initially surged by 7% but closed down over 3%, reflecting the overall volatility in the precious metals market [2][14]. Economic Data - U.S. durable goods orders for November 2025 increased by 5.3%, marking the largest growth in six months and exceeding market expectations of 3.7%. Core durable goods orders rose by 0.5%, marking the eighth consecutive month of growth [2][16]. Futures Market and Trading Volume - On January 26, 2026, the main gold futures contract opened at 1113.00 CNY per gram and closed at 1143.32 CNY per gram, reflecting a change of 2.48%. The trading volume for the day was 41,087 contracts [17]. - The main silver futures contract opened at 25,228.00 CNY per kilogram and closed at 27,207.00 CNY per kilogram, showing an increase of 8.98% with a trading volume of 965,900 contracts [17][18]. ETF Holdings - As of the latest report, gold ETF holdings remained stable at 1,086.53 tons, while silver ETF holdings decreased by 14 tons to 16,090 tons [20]. Strategy Outlook - For gold, a cautious bullish stance is recommended, with expectations of a fluctuating price range between 1130 CNY per gram and 1160 CNY per gram due to rising market risk sentiment [23]. - For silver, a neutral outlook is suggested, with anticipated price fluctuations between 27,000 CNY per kilogram and 30,000 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a slightly stronger position compared to gold [25].