Huan Qiu Wang·2026-01-27 02:28Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Synopsys, Sassine Ghazi, warns that the supply tightness and price increases of memory chips driven by the AI infrastructure boom may persist until 2027, raising concerns about structural imbalances in the global semiconductor supply chain [1]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current tight supply of memory chips is expected to last until 2026 or even 2027, primarily due to leading manufacturers directing most of their memory chip production towards high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to meet the enormous demand from AI servers [2][3]. - The core driver of this shortage is the substantial demand for high-performance storage, particularly HBM, which requires three times the wafer capacity per bit compared to traditional DRAM, leading to a significant reduction in the output of standard DRAM and NAND flash [3]. Group 2: Market Impact and Price Trends - The ongoing supply tightness is driving strong price increases for memory chips, with some analysts referring to this cycle as a "super cycle." Counterpoint Research predicts significant price increases for storage from Q4 2025 to Q2 2026, which will increase cost pressures on downstream manufacturers [4]. - The cost of storage components in high-end smartphones may account for 20% or more of the total bill of materials (BOM), indicating that entry-level devices will be the first to feel the pressure from rising costs [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The current demand driven by AI is viewed as having structural and persistent characteristics, reshaping the growth logic of the memory chip industry, which has historically been known for its cyclical nature [4]. - Ghazi describes the current period as a "golden age" for memory chip manufacturers, although the challenges posed to the global electronics supply chain are just beginning to emerge [4].