中国银河证券：看好零食量贩行业发展新趋势带来投资机会 收入增长仍具持续性&盈利能力提升

Core Viewpoint - The report from China Galaxy Securities highlights the investment opportunities arising from the new trends in the snack retail industry, indicating a shift from rapid expansion to high-quality growth, with leading companies driving revenue and profitability improvements [1] Downstream - The traditional snack retail sector has significant room for expansion, with an expected increase to nearly 50,000 stores by 2025, creating a total potential of about 74,000 stores, which represents an increase of over 20,000 stores [2] - Profitability is expected to continue improving, with adjusted net profit margins for Mingming Hen Mang rising from 2.3% to 3.9% and Wancheng's net margin increasing from -1.6% to 4.4% from 2023 to the first three quarters of 2025, driven by reduced store opening subsidies and category structure adjustments [2] - New store formats are supporting expansion and improving single-store performance, with both Mingming Hen Mang and Wancheng planning to open discount supermarket formats by 2025, currently accounting for less than 20% of new store formats, with potential for further growth [2] - The development of private label products is boosting revenue and gross margins, with the share of private label income for the two leading companies expected to be in the single digits, indicating significant room for growth compared to competitors like Don Quijote, where private label shares are around 20-30% [2] Upstream - Downstream stores are expanding their product categories to include dairy, baked goods, and frozen foods, which is expected to benefit related upstream supply chain companies, particularly mid-tier brands with significant revenue elasticity [3] - The focus on developing private label products by downstream stores may lead to market share differentiation among supply chain companies, as the relationship between upstream and downstream evolves from simple trade to deep product collaboration, favoring manufacturers with strong product development and customization capabilities [3]