牛市旗手何时归？春季行情下的金融板块破局之路

Core Viewpoint - The non-bank financial sector has experienced significant fluctuations, with the insurance sector reaching a five-year high before facing a two-week correction, highlighting a divergence in the driving logic between insurance and brokerage firms [1] Group 1: Insurance Sector Value Reassessment - The insurance sector is undergoing a value reassessment driven by liability-side reforms, asset-side recovery, and regulatory easing, leading to sustained fundamental improvements since 2025 [2] - Structural optimization on the liability side is central to the value recovery, with regulatory changes lowering the guaranteed interest rates for various insurance products, thus alleviating long-term risks and improving the cost structure [3] - The asset side has seen a reversal in returns, with the ten-year government bond yield stabilizing at 1.84% by the end of 2025, improving the industry's profit outlook and driving significant profit growth among major insurers [4] - Regulatory easing and product strategy optimization have created a synergistic effect, supporting valuation recovery in the insurance sector, particularly through the promotion of dividend insurance products [5] Group 2: Liquidity Support in the Insurance Sector - The influx of medium- to long-term funds into the market has become a key feature since 2025, with these funds favoring high-dividend assets, making the insurance sector a primary beneficiary [6] - Policies initiated in early 2025 aimed at promoting medium- to long-term funds entering the market have provided comprehensive institutional support for insurance investments [6] - A positive cycle has formed where increased returns from equity investments lead to more funds flowing into the insurance sector, enhancing liquidity and market activity [7] Group 3: Brokerage Sector Performance and Future Direction - The brokerage sector is experiencing a paradox of high earnings growth but stagnant stock prices, attributed to regulatory changes and shifts in market funding flows [8] - Despite impressive earnings growth in 2025, the brokerage sector has not led market rallies, contrasting sharply with its role during the 2015 bull market, due to intensified regulation and a shift in investor focus [9] - Mergers and acquisitions are seen as a necessary path for restructuring the brokerage industry, with government support aimed at enhancing international competitiveness and optimizing resource allocation [12] Group 4: Structural Opportunities in Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank financial sector is positioned for structural opportunities as the equity market recovers, benefiting from increased trading volumes and improved profitability in both brokerage and insurance sectors [13] - The brokerage sector is currently undervalued, with significant potential for valuation recovery, particularly through mergers and acquisitions that enhance competitive positioning [14] - The insurance sector is expected to see continued growth in new policy premiums, driven by attractive product offerings in a low-interest-rate environment, making it a core focus for investment [15]