Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-01-27 03:35Core Viewpoint - The liquor sector is experiencing a downturn, with Yanghe Co. seeing significant declines in stock prices and a bleak profit forecast for 2025, indicating a challenging environment for the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Company Performance - Yanghe Co. has forecasted a net profit decline of 62.18%-68.30% for 2025, estimating a loss of 1.451 billion to 1.859 billion yuan in Q4 2025 [1]. - The company has also retracted its previous commitment to a minimum 7 billion yuan dividend [1]. - Other major liquor companies like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Shanxi Fenjiu have also seen stock price declines, while Kweichow Moutai has shown slight gains [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The consumption ETF has seen a near 2% drop, with a transaction volume of 400 million yuan, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2]. - The liquor sector is in a phase of inventory reduction and price stabilization, with companies adjusting their strategies in response to external pressures [3][6]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - New policies aimed at boosting consumer spending are expected to be introduced, including measures to expand inbound consumption and promote the replacement of durable goods [1]. - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations that the worst period for liquor sales is over, aided by easing consumption restrictions [6]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The liquor sector is currently characterized by low expectations, low valuations, and low public fund holdings, presenting a potential buying opportunity [7]. - High dividend yields from leading liquor companies are expected to attract investors, as they commit to returning at least 100% of their net profits as dividends [7]. - Historical data suggests that high-end liquor stocks like Moutai and Wuliangye may lead the recovery in the sector, similar to past cycles [8].