银叶投资许巳阳，最新研判

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to shift from "expectation speculation" in 2025 to "performance verification" in 2026, with a focus on structural opportunities despite potential volatility [1] Equity Market - The A-share market is anticipated to exhibit a range-bound pattern in 2026, supported by global liquidity easing and RMB appreciation, with an emphasis on structural opportunities [2] - Technology growth is identified as a key sector for the year, driven by the accelerating penetration of AI, which will boost demand across semiconductor equipment, materials, and storage [2] - Three main areas for investment are highlighted: 1. High-growth sectors including CPU and optical communication, alongside non-ferrous metals like copper, aluminum, gold, and rare earths, benefiting from strategic metal demand and supply constraints [2] 2. Recovery sectors such as aviation and tourism, showing signs of improvement, with low valuation stocks in chemicals and construction materials poised for significant price elasticity [3] 3. Thematic investments in commercial aerospace, solid-state batteries, and AR healthcare, with a focus on order fulfillment and revenue growth [3] - Precious metals are expected to continue their bull market, supported by central bank and ETF purchases, alongside safe-haven demand [3] Bond Market - The bond market is projected to experience a "low-level wide fluctuation" pattern, with a focus on defensive strategies and some flexibility [4] - Key factors influencing interest rate fluctuations include the pace of economic demand recovery, real estate risks, and inflation narratives [4] - Specific strategies for bond types include: - City investment bonds, where the pricing logic is shifting from "guaranteed repayment" to "state-owned enterprise credit," necessitating a focus on risk management [5] - Convertible bonds, where supply-demand mismatches create opportunities for stock selection and index enhancement [5] - REITs, which require careful selection for new issues and attention to secondary market pricing opportunities [5] Quantitative Strategy - The outlook for quantitative strategies in 2026 is optimistic, driven by liquidity, factor effectiveness recovery, and market rotation [6] - Sufficient liquidity is noted, with market trading volumes nearing 40 trillion, providing a conducive environment for quantitative strategies [6] - The return of factor effectiveness is expected to support stock selection and judgment, as corporate earnings are projected to recover [6] - Market rotation across themes such as technology and cyclical sectors is anticipated to create opportunities for excess returns through style rotation strategies [6]