中加基金权益周报|市场面临降温

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance last week with a decline in trading volume at high levels [14] - The market experienced a cooling down after a period of heightened emotions, with a rapid decrease in market liquidity and financing levels [19] Macro Data Analysis - China's exports in December increased by 6.6% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations and showing month-on-month growth [4][16] - For the entire year of 2025, exports are projected to grow by 5.5%, making it the largest contributor to economic growth among the three driving forces [4][16] - The strong export performance in December is attributed to sustained external demand during the global manufacturing cycle and a rush to export due to domestic tax rebate policy reductions [4][16] - The new export orders index for China's manufacturing PMI rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0% in December, supporting the evidence of strong external demand [4][16] - Key export items included computers, integrated circuits, and automobiles, with the latter showing the strongest growth, potentially influenced by the EU's proposed minimum import price policy for Chinese cars [4][17] Short-term Market Strategy - The market is expected to benefit from favorable liquidity conditions, a weak dollar cycle, and a gradual appreciation of the RMB, alongside active institutional funds and insurance sector dynamics [19] - The spring market rally is driven by hotspots in commercial aerospace and AI applications, leading to an increase in market risk appetite [19] - However, the rapid momentum of the market may accumulate risks, prompting regulatory measures to cool down the stock market [19] Mid-term Market Outlook - Technology growth remains a favored direction, with expectations of improving economic fundamentals gradually accumulating [20] - The current economic fundamentals and technology narratives have not fundamentally changed, and the technology sector remains a priority for allocation [20] - There are concerns regarding the fundamentals of many defensive dividend sectors and cyclical sectors, which may require strong catalysts for further market development [20] Long-term Market Perspective - The long-term dynamics of the US-China struggle are becoming clearer, with increasing skepticism about the US government's governance and institutional credibility [21] - Despite uncertainties in the US economic outlook and the Fed's interest rate cuts, the RMB has appreciated against the USD, which could support China's equity market if foreign capital continues to flow in [21] - The trend towards long-term capital from public funds and insurance companies is expected to strengthen, with significant stock holdings by major A-share listed insurance companies [21] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are entering an observation period, with potential for fund allocation if aggressive sectors continue to face pressure [22] - The focus remains on technology sectors, particularly in AI and commercial aerospace, which are expected to provide strong short-term performance [23] - There is a need to monitor the stabilization of AI applications and related sectors for potential investment opportunities [23]