中加基金固收周报|结构性降息政策落地，债券配置力量增强

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local government bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 207 billion, 74.8 billion, and 169.8 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of -299.2 billion, 65.6 billion, and 41.1 billion [1][8] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 278.6 billion, with a net financing amount of 49 billion [1][8] - Two new convertible bonds were issued, with an expected financing scale of 2.18 billion [1][8] Secondary Market Review - Last week, the yield on interest rate bonds decreased, with government bonds and secondary perpetual bonds performing well [2][9] - Key influencing factors included the implementation of structural interest rate cuts, increased central bank injections, and stock market fluctuations [2][9] Liquidity Tracking - The net injection in the open market last week was 812.8 billion, with the central bank conducting a 6-month reverse repurchase operation exceeding 300 billion, indicating a loosening of funds [3][10] Policy and Fundamentals - The central bank lowered the interest rates on structural monetary policy tools, and the policy for tax refunds on housing purchases was postponed for the second time [4][11] - December's export and financial data exceeded expectations, but the M1 growth rate continued to decline [4][11] Overseas Market - The situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, with U.S. core inflation cooling and Powell stating he received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice [5][13] - Last week, the U.S. dollar appreciated slightly, U.S. stocks fell, and U.S. Treasury yields rose [5][13] Equity Market - Last week, the A-share index experienced high volatility, with the Wind All A index rising by 0.49% [6][14] - The electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors led the gains, with funds returning to performance and economic growth-oriented directions [6][14] - The average daily trading volume last week was 3.47 trillion, an increase of 613.11 billion from the previous week [6][14] - As of January 15, 2026, the total financing balance for the entire A-share market was 27,012.16 billion, a significant increase of 980.73 billion from January 8 [6][14] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The policy support for the "14th Five-Year Plan" continues, with the current monetary policy focusing on the quantity and price adjustment of structural tools, indicating a lower probability of total policy tools being implemented in the short term [7][15] - The current policy focus remains on maintaining reasonable liquidity to stabilize market expectations and keep overall interest rates relatively stable [7][15] - The bond market is expected to continue with limited long-end interest rate decline space, while the mid-short end shows more certainty [7][15] - The next phase will see a shift in policy focus from monetary policy to local two sessions, with attention on whether there are expectation differences in the 2026 economic growth targets set by various regions [7][15] - The convertible bond index is rising, and in the long term, convertible bonds are preferred for equity asset allocation, but short-term caution is advised against overheating trading and valuation bubble risks, especially around the end of January financial report pre-disclosure window [7][15]