实体经济综合融资成本持续下降，银行净息差走低——低利率环境下钱该放哪里？

Core Viewpoint - The comprehensive financing cost of the real economy continues to decline, leading to a decrease in banks' net interest margins, raising concerns about where to invest in a low-interest-rate environment [1][2][3] Group 1: Deposit Rates and Trends - Since the beginning of the year, deposit rates for large certificates of deposit (CDs) have dropped significantly, with over 40 banks reporting rates below 1% for terms under one year and many three-year rates below 2% [1][6] - The average three-year large CD rate among the six major banks is around 1.55%, down from over 3% three years ago, indicating a substantial decline in long-term deposit yields [1][6] - Smaller banks are also experiencing a convergence in rates, with some three-month products recently issued at rates between 0.93% and 0.95% [1][6] Group 2: Net Interest Margin and Banking Strategy - As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks has narrowed to a historical low of 1.42%, with large banks at 1.31%, reflecting ongoing pressure on profitability [2][7] - The reduction in high-cost liabilities, such as large CDs, is seen as a strategy to stabilize net interest margins amid declining financing costs for the real economy [2][7] Group 3: Future of Deposits and Market Reactions - A significant amount of deposits, estimated at around 50 trillion yuan, will reach maturity in 2026, raising questions about potential "deposit migration" as these funds face re-pricing [3][8] - Despite the low rates, many depositors are expected to keep their funds in the banking system due to their preference for stable returns and low risk, with a high deposit retention rate projected to remain above 90% [3][8] - Financial institutions are encouraged to balance business development with risk management as they navigate the upcoming re-pricing of deposits [4][9]