Nan Fang Du Shi Bao·2026-01-27 06:35Core Insights - The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's "14th Five-Year Plan," which outlines the development blueprint until 2030, focusing on the transformation of economic drivers, upgrading development paradigms, and reshaping the global landscape [1] - The real estate sector is at a critical juncture of stabilization and structural transformation, with new characteristics and opportunities emerging in both residential and commercial real estate markets [1][3] Real Estate Market Outlook - The overall real estate market is expected to maintain a stabilization trend in 2026, with significant structural differentiation; first-tier cities and prime locations are likely to see a rebound, while third and fourth-tier cities will continue to face inventory pressures [3][4] - Key indicators for market recovery include the reduction of first-hand housing inventory, the volume of second-hand housing transactions, and the participation of private enterprises in land auctions [6][7] - The core driving force for the real estate market's recovery is the overall macroeconomic improvement, which will stimulate demand and investment [7] Commercial Real Estate Opportunities - The global direct investment in real estate is projected to exceed $1 trillion in 2026, with China’s commercial real estate market poised to attract foreign capital, particularly in stable niche sectors like long-term rentals and quality community commercial projects [8][9] - The investment activity in China's commercial real estate is expected to improve, with core assets in first-tier cities returning to long-term investment value ranges, presenting structural opportunities for investors [11] - Domestic investors are encouraged to focus on high-quality, stable-return assets in prime locations, as these present a favorable window for investment amid the ongoing market adjustments [10][11]