长安期货屈亚娟：铜价上涨动能略显不足 高位注意风险控制

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, with domestic copper fluctuating between 99,000-105,600 CNY/ton and LME copper between 12,500-13,500 USD/ton, indicating a lack of upward momentum at these absolute highs [3][15]. Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is generally favorable, influenced by geopolitical tensions, including U.S. actions in Venezuela and rising tensions with Iran, which have boosted safe-haven assets like gold and silver, positively impacting non-ferrous metals [4][16]. - The U.S. government's emphasis on its dominance in the Western Hemisphere highlights the strategic value of key mineral resources, particularly copper from major producing countries like Chile and Peru [4][16]. - The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the potential appointment of Rick Riedel as the new Federal Reserve Chair are contributing to a bullish sentiment for precious metals and copper [4][16]. Copper Supply Constraints - Copper supply remains tight, posing a significant constraint in the medium to long term. Negotiations for processing fees for 2026 are ongoing, with Chinese smelters agreeing to a benchmark of 0 USD/ton for copper concentrate [5][17]. - The SMM imported copper concentrate TC index has dropped to -49.79 USD/dry ton, indicating a tightening supply situation [5][17]. - Global copper mine production in November 2025 was reported at 1.923 million tons, a slight decrease from October, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% [5][17][18]. Refined Copper Production - Global refined copper production in November 2025 was 2.371 million tons, down 3,000 tons from October, with a cumulative increase of 4.2% year-on-year [6][19]. - China's refined copper production for December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6][19]. Current Market Conditions - The domestic refined copper inventory has been accumulating, with SMM social inventory rising from approximately 160,000 tons to 330,000 tons [7][20]. - The current state of the market shows a slight backwardation, with the spot price of copper experiencing a small discount due to high prices and subdued demand [7][20]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to dampen demand, with a potential slowdown in recovery post-holiday [9][21]. Overall Market Outlook - The weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions are providing support for precious metals and non-ferrous metals, although copper prices are experiencing limited upward movement due to high levels and market sentiment [10][22]. - Supply-side constraints persist, with low processing fees and high refined copper production levels, while domestic inventories are accumulating [10][22]. - Overall, while short-term copper prices may be prone to increases, market sentiment can shift rapidly at these elevated levels, necessitating careful position management [10][22].