需求回升速度偏慢 预计铁矿石期货仍有回调空间

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The iron ore supply is tightening, with a decrease in port inventories and a slight increase in iron production, but the demand recovery is slow, which may limit the rebound in iron ore prices [2][3]. Group 1: Supply and Inventory - Satellite data indicates that from January 19 to January 25, 2026, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 11.689 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons week-on-week, slightly below the average level since the beginning of the year [1]. - In the fourth week of January 2026, Brazil shipped a total of 22.4963 million tons of iron ore, compared to 30.8902 million tons in January of the previous year, with an average daily shipment of 1.406 million tons, a slight increase of 0.14% year-on-year [1]. - The total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China during January 19 to January 25, 2026, were 26.255 million tons, a decrease of 2.722 million tons week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Demand and Price Outlook - According to Zhengxin Futures, while iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil have increased week-on-week, arrivals continue to decline, indicating a tightening supply overall. The demand for iron ore has not changed significantly, and the inventory at ports is accumulating, with a slight increase in steel mill replenishment needs [2]. - Donghai Futures reported a slight increase in daily iron production by 0.09 million tons, with the proportion of profitable steel mills rising to over 40%. However, the supply side shows a seasonal effect, with global iron ore shipments increasing by 484,000 tons week-on-week, while arrivals decreased by 1.297 million tons [3].