全球债市动荡！发达经济体“借新还旧”的日子，要到头了？

Core Viewpoint - The global bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off driven by concerns over the sustainability of high debt levels in developed economies, exacerbated by U.S. tariff threats and Japan's expansionary fiscal policies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury yields saw a notable increase, with the 30-year yield rising nearly 9 basis points to 4.925% and the 10-year yield reaching a high of 4.286%, both marking the highest levels since early September of the previous year [1]. - Japanese government bonds faced historic sell-offs, with the 30-year yield rising over 30 basis points to 3.915% and the 40-year yield touching the psychological threshold of 4% [1]. - Major European economies, including Germany and France, also experienced a rise in long-term bond yields, indicating a synchronized reaction across global markets [1]. Group 2: Debt Concerns - The global debt total is projected to reach $345.7 trillion by September 2025, which is 3.1 times the global GDP, with developed markets' debt hitting a record $230.6 trillion [2]. - U.S. federal debt is nearing $39 trillion, with projections indicating that the fiscal deficit will expand from $1.9 trillion in 2025 to $2.5 trillion by 2035 [2]. - The share of net interest payments in GDP is expected to rise from 3.2% in 2025 to 4.1% in 2035, highlighting increasing fiscal pressures [2]. Group 3: Structural Issues - Developed economies are caught in a cycle of relying on debt for growth while facing rising welfare costs due to aging populations, with social security spending in the EU approaching 30% of GDP [3]. - Political polarization is hindering fiscal reforms, as seen in the U.S. Congress's repeated budget impasses and Japan's commitment to suspend consumption tax increases while promoting significant investments in AI and semiconductor sectors [3]. - The reliance on debt-driven growth without structural reforms is leading to a loss of market confidence, suggesting that the current model is unsustainable [3][5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The perceived safe-haven status of sovereign bonds is diminishing, with funds from countries like Denmark and Sweden selling U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over long-term fiscal sustainability [4]. - Rising yields in Japan have prompted local insurance companies to reduce their holdings in U.S. debt, further undermining the latter's status as a global asset pricing anchor [4]. - A negative feedback loop is forming as investors sell U.S. bonds to manage liquidity in response to rising Japanese yields, indicating a broader market instability [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The global bond market faces multiple risks, including increased pressure for debt monetization, potential social unrest from fiscal tightening, and a reconfiguration of international capital flows favoring emerging markets [4][5]. - If developed economies can address trade conflicts and present credible fiscal consolidation plans, there may be temporary relief in the bond market; otherwise, any minor disturbance could trigger further instability [5].