Di Yi Cai Jing·2026-01-27 08:16Core Viewpoint - The performance of human rabies vaccine companies is declining despite an increase in rabies cases in China, with major manufacturers like Chengda Biological and Kanghua Biological forecasting significant drops in net profits for 2025 [1][2]. Company Performance - Chengda Biological expects a net profit of 123 million to 139 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 59.34% to 63.98% [1]. - Kanghua Biological anticipates a net profit decline of 41.55% to 52.09% for the same period [1]. Industry Context - Rabies is a highly fatal disease with a near 100% mortality rate once symptoms appear, making vaccination crucial for control [2]. - The human rabies vaccine market in China is experiencing a contraction due to regulatory changes and intensified market competition [2][4]. - The number of manufacturers in the human rabies vaccine sector has increased, leading to heightened competition and market share erosion for established players like Chengda Biological [4][5]. Regulatory Changes - The Chinese CDC's 2023 guidelines have revised vaccination protocols, reducing the number of doses required for certain populations, which is expected to decrease overall vaccine usage [5][6]. - The new guidelines state that individuals exposed to rabies after three months of full vaccination only need two doses of the vaccine, compared to previous requirements that could involve more doses [6]. Market Dynamics - The domestic market for human rabies vaccines has entered a phase of oversupply since 2021, with 12 companies receiving approval for rabies vaccines by 2024 [5]. - Approximately 40 million people in China are exposed to rabies annually, but the vaccination rate for this group is only about 35%, indicating potential for market growth despite current challenges [2].