智库报告：经济复苏处于早期阶段，仍需激发内生动力

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China's economic recovery is in its early stages and requires stimulation of internal momentum [1] Group 2 - In 2025, China's macroeconomic indicators show characteristics of early-stage recovery, with significant improvements in financial markets compared to 2024, including a nearly 30% increase in the CSI 300 index and a 5% appreciation of the RMB against the USD [3] - The growth rate of social financing stock increased from 8.0% at the end of 2024 to 8.3% at the end of 2025, indicating stronger support for purchasing power [3] Group 3 - Corporate cash flow has improved, and the downward trend in corporate profits has been curbed, with non-financial corporate bank deposits rising from -2.2% in January 2025 to 3.6% by November 2025 [4] - The report anticipates that the profit levels for 2025 may improve compared to 2024, despite a slight decline in asset return rates for listed companies [4] Group 4 - The total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 are expected to grow by 3.7%, slightly better than the 3.5% growth in 2024, indicating stable consumption [4] Group 5 - The report highlights that the current economic recovery is heavily reliant on fiscal borrowing and external demand, with insufficient internal growth momentum, particularly in private sector investment and consumer willingness to purchase homes [4] Group 6 - Looking ahead to 2026, the report suggests that with sufficient counter-cyclical policy support, China's economy could achieve a real GDP growth rate of around 5.0% and a nominal GDP growth rate of approximately 4.5% [5] - The external environment for China's economy is expected to marginally improve due to stable growth in major developed economies and a potential stabilization in China-US trade relations [5] - Continued positive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies are anticipated to support economic growth in 2026, coinciding with the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan [5]