接下来如何实施货币政策进而扩大内需？学者：改变对未来预期

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on relying more on monetary policy to expand domestic demand rather than fiscal policy is highlighted, as monetary policy can effectively influence individual behaviors and market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Domestic Demand - Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at CF40, argues that expanding domestic demand through fiscal spending is limited by practical constraints, such as the need for homeowner consent for projects like elevator installations in old residential buildings [3]. - The report indicates that from 2018 to 2021, the average mortgage interest rate in China was 5.5%, while the average growth rate of second-hand housing prices was 4.1%, resulting in a net cost of home buying at 1.4%, which was lower than the average rental yield of 2.2% [3]. - In contrast, from 2022 to 2025, the average mortgage interest rate is projected to drop to 3.9%, with second-hand housing prices expected to decline at an annual rate of -4.8%, leading to a net cost of home buying rising to 8.7%, making buying less attractive compared to renting [3]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - Lowering interest rates can reduce the cost gap between buying and renting, thereby increasing residents' willingness to purchase homes [4]. - Monetary policy is seen as a more sustainable approach to expanding domestic demand by improving expectations and optimizing the budget constraints and incentives for both corporate investments and consumer spending [4]. - The key to achieving these changes lies in the central bank's firm stance on inflation targets and significantly lowering policy interest rates, which can enhance market confidence and influence economic behavior [4].