国信证券：2026年天然橡胶价格预计易涨难跌

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the global major production areas of natural rubber will enter a cessation of tapping in Q1, while the domestic tire industry is entering a critical operational season post-Spring Festival, suggesting that short-term price trends will be dominated by industrial attributes and heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring downstream operational performance after the Spring Festival and the catalytic effect of the petrochemical chain's prosperity [1] - Long-term, natural rubber prices have confirmed a long-term turning point since the new tapping season began in May 2023, with the downstream sector poised for a new cycle driven by the impending AI technology revolution [1] Group 2 - The report forecasts that by 2026, short-term synthetic rubber price increases will elevate valuations, while long-term capacity bottlenecks will become apparent, leading to a scenario where prices are likely to rise but difficult to fall [1] - The company recommends Hainan Rubber (601118.SH) as a core investment opportunity [1]